Now that Trump is installed in the White House, the 48.3% of the American electorate who voted for the Democrats must be feeling pretty sick. Also, the population of Ukraine must be feeling very worried, with the thought that Trump will come to some sort of deal with Putin over their heads. Indeed, many countries around the world are voicing their concern.
Ukrainians voice their fears and support for an independent Ukraine
Recently, I spoke in person to two Ukrainian women who had recently returned to England from visiting their parents in Ukraine. I asked them what their opinion was, and both of them independently said they were extremely worried. I also asked them, would they give in to Russia and let them formally annex Eastern Ukraine around the Donbas area? Both of them gave me an emphatic NO! Finally, I asked them both, did they believe that Ukrainians are still determined to protect their country? And I received an emphatic YES!
However, they live in very worrying times. One of them had just returned from Kyiv, and she said there are Russian rockets and drones landing every night with air raid sirens going off. She said you can’t sleep. This must be very wearing for the 2.8 million who live in the Ukrainian capital.
Likewise, the 44 million people who live in other areas in Ukraine are experiencing very stressful and uncertain times. They must be extremely concerned for Ukraine’s future now that Trump is in power.
They have suffered three years of war: that’s the halfway point of WWII. The difference is that Ukraine stands alone against an aggressive and powerful neighbour. Yes, Ukraine’s allies have provided arms, but that’s nothing like boots on the ground.
Three years of war and uncertainty in Europe
There is an unsettled atmosphere in Ukraine. Zelensky is not as popular as he once was.
Personally, I’m not surprised after trying to hold things together during three years of war, but where do we go from here? European support seems mixed. Britain and other nations like the Baltic states, the Scandinavian nations and France are solidly behind Ukraine, but other countries hold a different position.
In Germany, Chancellor Scholz is under pressure from the right wing, who are known supporters of Putin. They will have their general election with the federal election to be held on 23 February 2025, the day before the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In Hungary there is Viktor Orbán who is a known supporter of Putin. He is likely to be around for a long time as he retains complete control over the rules governing elections. Around the world Putin has his allies such as India, Algeria and South Africa. One only has to look at the voting at the United Nations to see this. North Korea is providing military aid and troops to support Putin’s army on the front line. Iran supplies Putin with close range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia as well as drones.
Enter Donald Trump
It’s clear that Donald Trump won’t want the war in Ukraine to drag on. At a press conference on 7 January, he said would end the war in “24 hours”, calling the negotiation “a tough one”. Reports say that Trump went off script with this statement but clearly his administration will want to end the war quickly. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, retired US General Keith Kellogg, told Fox News on 8 January, “I would like to set a goal on a personal level, professional level, I would say let’s set it at 100 days.”
The new Secretary of State of the USA
In reality much will depend on how Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State, handles things. He now holds the third-highest office of the US federal government and is the highest-ranking member of the cabinet with responsibility for foreign affairs.
On both sides of the US Senate Rubio seems to be well respected. He was the vice chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a senior member of the Committee on Foreign Relations. In his new role he will have to play a difficult balancing act as he will have to follow Trump’s “America First” foreign policy.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Rubio was a vocal supporter of Kyiv. But more recently, he has called for negotiations to end the conflict and voted in April against a $95 billion military aid package for the Ukrainians. Now in office, Marco Rubio is quoted as saying, “The official policy of the United States will be that the war in Ukraine should end. It is a stalemate. This is a difficult diplomatic job in which the United States must play a key role.”
Putin and Trump
It’s clear that the frosty relations between Moscow and Washington are now over. Some days ago, President Putin congratulated Donald Trump as he prepared to return to the White House, hailing his plans to restore direct contact with Moscow and his efforts to “prevent a third world war”.
By contrast, Putin did not congratulate President Biden until six days after his inauguration in 2021. He also said that Russia was open to dialogue with the Trump administration on the war in Ukraine.
So, what happens if the US and Russia begin negotiations over Ukraine? What can Europe or the UK do about it? Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to put Ukraine in the “strongest possible position” on a trip to Kyiv where he signed a “landmark” 100-year pact with the war-stricken country. This sounds all very positive but in reality, the UK and the rest of Europe who rely upon the USA for their military hardware can do little if Trump decides to broker a deal with Putin.
One million people have been killed or wounded
The BBC reported recently that an estimated one million people have been killed or wounded in the war so far. As the invasion reaches the end of its third year, Ukraine is losing territory in the east. The situation has already worsened as far as non-military aid is concerned. Trump has already suspended US foreign assistance for 90 days.
The indomitable President Zelensky
Meanwhile the indomitable President Zelensky addresses the World Economic Forum at Davos. Will it make a difference? In one way, yes, as Ukrainian allies will be encouraged by the determination to sustain Ukraine’s economy and rid the country of their invaders. However Putin, if he has to survive in Russia, will not want to give an inch of ground back and will be looking for a way to call his ‘Special Operation’ a success. It’s likely that Russia will hold onto the Eastern part of Ukraine around Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula.
Trump ‘mixing it’ on social media
Currently we have Trump continuing to make unsolicited comments on social media:
- Trump took to social media to urge Putin to “MAKE A DEAL” or face further punishing economic sanctions. “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way,” he said.
- At the same time, writing on his social media platform ‘Truth Social’, Trump said that by pushing to settle the war he was doing Russia and its President a “very big favour”.
- To make matters worse, in a ridiculously untrue comment, Trump suggests Ukrainian President shares blame for war, saying Zelensky is “no angel”.
While all this rhetoric is going on, the nightly bombing of Ukraine continues as Putin tries to wear down the resolve of the Ukrainian population and military.
By Dorothy Smith
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
