A Sussex Election ABC

Every week Sussex Bylines will be publishing articles related to the July 4th General Election, covering both local and national issues. Broadly, our political sympathies are left of centre and while Sussex Bylines does not endorse any one political party we are keen to encourage collaboration between progressive parties and reduce tribalism. Published articles will reflect the views and political stance of individual writers and should not be taken as Sussex Bylines’ endorsement of those views

Every General Election is to some degree unique. The circumstances, the economy, the personalities are always different. GE2024 has one particularity which is unusual: it looks likely to be decided without either of the two potential winners offering a clear vision for the future of the country.

Neither Conservative nor Labour, the only two parties that can hope to form a government, present a case for support based on the future quality of life for the electorate. The Conservatives appear chaotic and divided and offer little hope that they will change course and invest in crumbling public services and infrastructure. The best we might hope for from Labour (though this is far from trivial) is that it will address the legacy of fourteen years of austerity with more integrity and efficiency than we can expect from the incumbents.

Predicted Seat Changes in 2024 General Election: East and West Sussex

Constituency	County/Area	Current	MP	Majority 2019	Prediction
Bexhill and Battle	East Sussex	CON	Huw Merriman	26,059 [LAB 2^nd]	CON hold
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	West Sussex	CON	Nick Gibb	22,503 [LAB 2^nd]	CON hold
Chichester	West Sussex	CON	Gillian Keegan	21,490 [LIB 2^nd]	CON hold
Crawley	West Sussex	CON	Henry Smith	8,360	LAB gain
Eastbourne	East Sussex	CON	Caroline Ansell	4,331	LIB gain
East Grinstead and Uckfield [new seat]	East Sussex
Hastings and Rye	East Sussex	CON	Sally-Ann Hart	4,043	LAB gain
Horsham	West Sussex	CON	Jeremy Quin	21,127	LIB gain
Hove and Portslade		LAB	Peter Kyle	17,044	LAB hold
Lewes	East Sussex	CON	Maria Caulfield	2,547	LIB gain
Sussex Mid	West Sussex	CON	Mims Davies	18,197	LIB gain
Wealden	East Sussex	CON	Nus Ghani	25,655 [LIB 2^nd]	CON hold
Worthing East and Shoreham	West Sussex	CON	Tim Loughton	7,474	LAB gain
Worthing West	West Sussex	CON	Peter Bottomley	14,823	LAB gain
Brighton Pavilion		GREEN	Caroline Lucas [not standing July 4th]	19,940	GREEN hold
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven		LAB	Lloyd Russell-Moyle [not standing July 4th]	8,061	LAB hold

(Predictions based on those published by Electoral Calculus 27 May 2024 with some minor adjustments)

Voting smart rather than with the heart

For voters with concerns for one another, for a decent society, for the planet, this election will be about voting out the current Conservative government, hence ABC – Anyone But Conservative. As the recent local elections have shown, no single party will win every seat in pursuit of this goal. In fact, “others” won substantially more of the council seats taken off the Conservatives than Labour did (282 vs 186), allowing for a diversity of voice in councils.

In a First Past the Post General Election, though, such diverse representation is not available. Voters who are keen to change the current government need to focus on the party best placed to defeat the Conservative candidate in their constituency, not necessarily voting for the party which would be their first preference on grounds of habit, tribalism, or ideology. Voting smart rather than with the heart.

Sussex fairer society campaign group Compass Lewes has developed a simple, confidential online survey to find out how voters in Sussex feel about this idea, with telling results. In a pilot conducted in March and April, 200 voters surveyed were divided between opposition options when it came to emotional preference, but almost unanimously in favour of one party when thinking about how to make their vote count. This makes sense, even if it can feel like disloyalty.

The turnout in May’s council elections was low. Many people expressed their disenchantment with politics by not voting at all. This is not a consequence-free strategy. Abstaining deprives one party of a vote that could be pivotal in protecting it from losing or nudging it into victory. One’s democratic vote in a General Election is a precious thing, something bravely won for some, a cornerstone of democracy which merits defending and use.

However, many traditional Conservatives are dismayed by the direction taken by their party under recent leaders. The party of Macmillan, Home, Heath and Thatcher was known for its upholding of decency and the rule of law. Today’s party bears little relation to that legacy. Lifelong Conservative supporters might find it difficult to vote for a progressive left-of-centre party and consider giving their vote to Reform, as a form of protest. A more considered reaction could be to abstain or – as some have done in the past – deliberately spoil their ballot paper, to express their anger and frustration.

Smart, not Heart, means voting for the candidate who will best contribute to a change of government. It may also deliver an MP whose guiding aim is to look after the interests of all their constituents, not just those of their own party.

If you are interested in finding out more, there are several organisations which can help you to identify which candidate in your constituency offers the best opportunity for you to play your part in voting for a change of government:

Tactical Vote

Stop the Tories

Best for Britain