The recent fallout from the Mandelson revelations and near toppling of the prime minister has hidden other bad news, including draconian plans to further erode migrants’ rights.
Under proposed Home Office changes, over one million legal migrants already living in the UK, including 300,000 children, could wait 10 or even 15 years for settled status, according to research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
Doubling the time to settled status
It has probably passed most people by that a consultation on settled status put forward by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has just ended. This builds on last year’s immigration white paper that I previously wrote about for Sussex Bylines.
Mis-named A Fairer Pathway to Settlement, the plans would double the time it takes legal migrants to obtain permanent residence – from the current five years to 10. For those on lower paid work, such as care workers, the qualifying time could be as much as 15 years.
Settlement, also known as “indefinite leave to remain” (ILR), gives a person the right to “live, work and study in the UK” and apply for benefits if they are eligible. However, without that status, migrants are not allowed to claim public funds, such as universal credit, child benefit, housing benefit or income support.
Punitive criteria for “earned settlement”
Mahmood now calls the process to ILR “earned settlement”. Mandatory criteria include a minimum earnings requirement of £12,570 and a higher level of English language.
The new 10-year qualifying time will be adjusted up or down according to further criteria. Those on a high salary (£50,270 and above), working in senior public sector roles and volunteering will all result in reductions – some to as little as three years.
In contrast, so-called lower skilled workers, such as nurses and healthcare workers, face a 15-year qualifying period, while refugees who claim asylum may have to wait 20 years before obtaining settlement.
Even when someone achieves settled status, Mahmood proposes that “benefits should not be available” to them but only eligible for people with British citizenship. To my knowledge, this goes further than any previous government’s immigration plans and is truly shocking. Only Reform UK is proposing a similar extreme reduction of benefits – another example of Labour trying to match the far right.
Those on the EU settlement or Windrush schemes and those entering the UK on Hong Kong visas will keep the rules for those routes and will not be affected by these plans.
Children’s lives in limbo

The IPPR found that these changes will affect hundreds of thousands of children’s lives, leading to insecurity, limited access to higher education and child poverty. This applies to those whose families who came as legal migrants as well as refugees seeking asylum.
Zayn, aged 18, whose father came from abroad to work as an NHS doctor, is facing a five-year increase to settlement, doubling it to 10 years. This would effectively prevent him going to university, where he hoped to study medicine. “Without access to student finance I simply can’t afford university here”, he said. “Our whole future feels like it’s been pulled away overnight.”
Lord Dubs, who came to England as a child refugee in 1939, is scathing in his criticisms of plans for refugee children, including restrictions on unaccompanied children being able to join family members here. Increases in income requirements and English language tests will also make it harder for refugees to settle. Dubs argues for a more compassionate approach: “Certain basic human rights principles must apply.”
Strong opposition from MPs
In a House of Commons debate on 2 February, many Labour and other MPs strongly opposed the government’s immigration reform plans, especially applying them retrospectively to those who are already in the UK and contributing to the economy.
Labour MP Tony Vaughan argued that it is unfair, “un-British”, a “breach of trust” and contrary to legal norms to change the rules for migrants who came to the UK in good faith on a five-year route.
Longer waits for settlement could also worsen recruitment and retention in shortage sectors such as health and social care: “If we tell a care worker they must wait 15 years for security, while Australia offers it in three and Canada in five, they will simply vote with their feet,” Vaughan stated.
In a letter to Mahmood following the debate, 35 Labour MPs and 17 from other parties said the proposals are: “unfair towards migrant workers who have put down roots, contributed to their communities and built lives here”. The letter also warns that the plans “risk pushing the [care] sector closer to breaking point”.
“An act of economic vandalism”
A survey by the charity Praxis of over 1,000 people likely to be affected by the proposals confirmed these warnings. One in three of those surveyed were working in health and social care. Families of nurses and carers said they “fear being torn apart” by the rule changes. Nursing leaders said that as many as 50,000 nurses could leave the UK as a result.
Chief executive of Praxis Minnie Rahman called the plans “an act of economic vandalism” and said: “The government needs to stop penalising migrant communities and recognise the vital skills that such people bring to the country.”
Stoking racism and discrimination
The Home Office has responded to these criticisms by stating: “It is a privilege not a right to settle in the UK and it must be earned. We are reforming a broken immigration system to prioritise contribution and integration.”
But these punishing proposals will do the opposite of encouraging integration. As Praxis argues, they will create a two-tier system for migrants, whereby the already wealthy can settle quickly whilst the lower-paid (predominantly ethnic minorities and women) will face prolonged insecurity and higher costs.
More people will end up facing poverty and homelessness, with children bearing the brunt of unsettled futures. The NHS and care sectors will become even more dangerously understaffed. Is this what the government really wants?

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