Looking at the results of the European elections, is the renowned historian Timothy Garton Ash right when he says that Europe is “again in danger”?
It does seem ominous that, immediately after the commemorations of the D-day landings, which liberated Western Europe from the fascism and nationalism of the Nazis, the rise of the right has been manifested in the European Parliament (EP) results.
There were strong gains for Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant parties in the most important member states of the EU, notably France and Germany, which could even portend threats to their incumbent governments.
“The centre is holding”
The current German President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, sought to reassure supporters that “the centre is holding”, with provisional results showing her own European People’s Party (EPP) of mainstream conservatives, plus the centre-left Social Democrats (S&D) and Liberals (Renew), jointly controlling around 400 seats in the parliament of 720.
Far right alliance?
However, two far-right groups in the Parliament made significant gains. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which includes Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s Law and Justice parties, won 73 seats, a gain of four.
The Identity and Democracy group (ID), which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (NR) in France, won 58, a gain of nine seats. This means these two groups will control 131 seats.
Le Pen has now suggested that she and Meloni should form a “super group” alliance of ECR and ID, which together would be the second largest group in the EP. However, there are many divisions between them (for example, on support for Ukraine, which Meloni has strongly backed, but Le Pen opposes).
In addition, there will be 15 MEPs representing the right-wing Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) Party, 10 for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz group, as well as other, non-aligned, members.
Not so green
Meanwhile, there were signs of a backlash against some of the EU’s green policies, as the Greens won only 53 seats, a loss of 18, so they will drop from being the fourth to the sixth largest group in the Parliament. The Greens could be important in supporting the centre on policy, however.
Choosing the next President of the Commission
Debate on distribution of positions at the top of the EU institutions began at an informal summit of heads of EU government in Brussels on 17 June. Will von der Leyen be successful once again in becoming Chair of the EU Commission for a second five-year term? Despite her own party’s triumph, this cannot be taken for granted, as she needs the support of a majority of the EU’s national leaders, as well as a working majority within the Parliament. Nevertheless, it seems likely that both French President Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will support her, with the latter possibly pushing for a speedy appointment.
Notwithstanding the EPP, S&D and Liberal majority in the EP, this is not regarded as a safe margin, in a secret ballot. Von der Leyen has worked closely with Italy’s Meloni in the past, but the Socialists, Liberals and Greens have all warned that they will not work with any far-right parties. Perhaps she will therefore seek support from the Greens, despite their relatively weak position, rather than Meloni, to boost her chances?
Once elected, the President of the Commission, with the European Council, will then nominate individual Commissioners and there will be Parliamentary hearings with the Commissioners-designate, which could go on into the autumn. This timetable is illustrative of Timothy Garton Ash’s concern about the geopolitical consequences of the EP election results. He sums up the horse-trading over EU positions as “fiddling in Brussels while Kharkiv and our planet burn.”
If it wasn’t for Brexit…
In view of the polls relating to the upcoming UK election on 4 July, those of us familiar with the EU institutions cannot help but ponder on the situation in the European Parliament: what if the UK was still an EU member and we had participated in the EU elections?
One former UK MEP, who is an expert on the European Parliament, has reportedly calculated that as the opinion polls stand (i.e. a Labour landslide), the resulting number of Labour MEPs would mean that the Social Democrat group would be the biggest in the Parliament, not the European People’s Party. Dream on…
Geopolitical consequences: Macron’s gamble
The impact of the far-right on EU decision-making capability will threaten stability in a variety of ways. The bombshell of President Macron calling an immediate, high-risk general election is just one. Elements of the French constitution may help to avoid a catastrophic victory for Marine Le Pen, but was this risk worth taking?
If Macron loses his gamble, then three days after we are (hopefully) celebrating a change of government to the centre-left in the UK, we could be faced with a far-right, Eurosceptic Prime Minister in France, delivering a political stalemate (“cohabitation”) in the EU’s most pro-European country.
The European Political Community: UK meeting in July
Eleven days later, on 18 July, the new British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary will be welcoming over 40 European leaders to a meeting of the European Political Community (conceived by President Macron after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire.
The aim of the meeting is to facilitate discussions between EU and non-EU members, hosted once every six months by a member of one of these two groups, on an alternating basis.
Despite a lack of enthusiasm for the UK’s ‘turn’, Rishi Sunak announced the date and venue in March. (Perhaps he had forgotten about this commitment when he fixed the election on 4 July.)
A gift to Labour to establish its European credentials
This is an ideal opportunity for Labour (assuming they win in the UK) to show off their European credentials on the world stage. Let’s hope that Starmer and Lammy rise to this challenge and start to prepare the ground for the readmission of the UK to the broader European political community, if not (yet) the EU itself.
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
