The dust has settled and we can take stock of the extraordinary changes that have taken place in Sussex. The political landscape has been upended and the chequerboard of colours that make up our two counties has transformed dramatically in ways inconceivable only five years ago.
Across the 17 constituencies of East and West Sussex, the Conservative Party lost nine seats. The map which was once almost entirely blue is now a patchwork of orange and red with that familiar green patch in the middle, the Green Party having held what until then had been its only seat, in Brighton Pavilion. Sussex used to be prime Tory territory, so what is going on?
At one level, it’s obvious. The majority of citizens have finally had enough of what ex-Telegraph editor and long term Tory insider, Max Hastings, described as “grotesque” right-wing policies and Tory “Flat Earthers”, who are “almost without exception fantasists”.
Can the Sussex Compass groups claim credit for ‘smart’ voting?
At another level, some ‘smart’ voting was undoubtedly in play. Claire Jones’ article for our sister Bylines title suggests tactical voting in Oxfordshire impacted the outcomes there. What happened in Sussex? We know that a substantial tactical voting campaign was mounted, much of it promoted by Compass and its ‘Win as One’ campaign. There are three Compass groups in Sussex and numerous members and affiliated supporters and they organised carefully to make this “an election to change elections”.
This was to be achieved, not just by defeating the Tories, but by constructing a caucus of MPs in the coming parliament who would be committed to delivering a new voting system based on proportional representation (PR). “Making votes matter” would bring, it was argued, the fundamental change the country needs.
Anxious to avoid charges of party-level bias, the Sussex Compass groups got behind the best-placed progressive candidates supporting PR. This meant publicly endorsing the Labour candidate in West Worthing, the Lib Dem candidate in Lewes, the Green candidate in Pavilion and the Lib Dem candidate in Horsham – all enthusiastic public supporters of PR.
Compass groups then canvassed in these constituencies, running events and street stalls and leafleting on behalf of their endorsed candidates (the Lewes group’s activities even caught the attention of the national press). Campaigners also set up a Vote Heart/Vote Smart operation using an online tool to let voters swap their ‘heart’ vote with someone in a seat where the vote would make the most impact: say Green voters in West Worthing swapping with Labour voters in Brighton Pavilion.
So, of course, everyone involved is now delighted because all four of the endorsed candidates were victorious. They rode a wave of voting that saw more than half the seats in the two counties turn away from the ugly tawdriness of recent years. It really was a sea change. Of the 17 Sussex seats, the Conservatives were left with only five. Labour won six, the Liberal Democrats five, and the Greens one.
The evidence for tactical voting
Broadly speaking, a closer look at the results supports the tactical voting case. In West Worthing, the winning Labour candidate got 20,519 votes (up 5,000 from 2019) against the combined Lib Dem and Green vote of some 6,000 (down 2,000 from 2019). This suggests some tactical voting by supporters of the smaller progressive parties.
In Lewes too, the evidence of tactical voting looks fairly clear. The winning Lib Dem candidate received 26,985 votes (up 9.5% from 2019) while Labour’s 3,574 was down 300 (well against the national trend), although the Greens 1,869 were up 400.
Brighton Pavilion, with its solitary, much loved but retiring Green MP, was a special case and not really a target for the tactical voting campaign. Compass supported the Greens in Pavilion, but partly also on the grounds of promoting pluralism on the left. In the end, despite a vigorous Labour campaign, Sian Berry won easily.
The rise of the Reform vote
Was tactical voting the whole story then, or was anything else going on to deliver the results the progressive campaigners are celebrating? One word: Reform.
In West Worthing, Reform got 7,562, a 31% bite out of the combined right-wing vote, enough to finish the Tory off. In Lewes, Reform got 6,300, accounting for many of the 8,000 votes the Tory lost since 2019. In Horsham, Reform got 6,116, a 24% bite out of the combined right-wing vote, also enough to easily overwhelm the Tory candidate.
One should also note that in Sussex Weald, where Reform again did well and weakened the Tory, a combined progressive vote could’ve won the day, but there was little or no campaigning for the tactical vote. In East Grinstead, Reform didn’t run and the Tory easily won, although, again, the combined vote of the three progressive parties could’ve brought success.
Say goodbye to the dinosaurs – and welcome to PR-supporting MPs
So if the resistible rise of Reform is the bad news, and let us be in no doubt that it is bad and sobering news, let’s look at the good news. Look at the map again. We threaten to become a more civilised place, and we are learning that a more cooperative, less tribal, politics is taking real steps in building that caucus of pro-PR MPs.
This is how the whole nation will move forward with a new progressive agenda. Finally, if it doesn’t strike too much of a sour note, let’s respectfully record the passing of some wearyingly tiresome dinosaurs. In Lewes, we said goodbye to the Brexit-supporting Maria Caulfield, who once tweeted a doctored video clip of Keir Starmer and voted against buffer zones outside abortion clinics.
We also saw the comedienne, Gillian Keegan, pack her bags in Chichester. Once Secretary of State for Education, she was famous for asking: “Does anyone ever say: ‘You know what, you’ve done a fucking good job, because everyone else has sat on their arse and done nothing?’” Unfortunately for her, too many of her voters were sitting on their arse while the Lib Dem tide washed her away. Even the substantial Reform vote wouldn’t have saved her.
A last word too on Sir Peter Bottomley in Worthing West. He lost out despite being the MP there since the constituency’s creation in 1997. Avuncular and charming in that old school way, he should’ve known better than to approach the Compass Stall then refuse to engage in substantive discussion!
Editor’s note: Thanks to several Compass campaigners for helpful input into this piece. Full details of national results on the BBC website.
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