This is the second of two articles reflecting on how one-off moments in politics can have significant impact and how an accumulation of such moments could change much more. This article explores the opportunities for creating such change locally.
The first article drew on Compass analysis suggesting that Labour isn’t going to win an election any time soon. The party needs to win 125 seats to get a majority of just one; with likely boundary changes that figure could jump to 148. On these figures, Labour needs a 17-point swing…
A more recent analysis (Britain Predicts, published in the New Statesman) turns poll shares into likely seats. It expects Labour to be the largest party at the next election, but not to have an overall parliamentary majority.
As commentators on both sides of the divide (from Simon Jenkins to Paul Mason) accept, there is still no groundswell of enthusiasm for Labour and so a better result than Britain Predicts suggests seems nigh on impossible. Maybe the growing alarm at rising energy prices and outrage over the ongoing sewage spills could shock the Tory faithful but equally likely is that there will be a ‘Liz Truss bounce’ to bolster Tory support. As the stakes rise, you can be sure that the Tory press will get more rabid by the day.
With millions of households facing an unprecedented 80% increase in energy costs in October, the next months are going to be difficult and dangerous. The need to resist and to bring progressive forces together is becoming more urgent every day. Such an alliance has a huge mountain to climb but seems to be the only way to remove and then block the Johnson/Truss clique and their shadowy, very wealthy funders.
My earlier article asked whether a “Portillo moment”, the bundling out of an emblematic opponent, could be created. A vibrant, fizzing campaign for this could produce a ‘situation’ that would challenge the prevailing mood: an event “deliberately constructed for the purpose of reawakening and pursuing authentic desires, experiencing …. the liberation of everyday life” as theorist Guy Debord might have called it. How can we create such a situation locally?
Recent local election and by-election results
Local activists are, of course, already looking at the constituencies where the Tories are vulnerable to targeted action. Recent local election results confirm that specific local situations can buck a national trend and cause significant ripples across the wider political firmament. A few months ago, Labour gained control of Westminster city council for the first time, going from 19 to 31 seats and alarming the Tories. Closer to home here in Sussex, we can see how demographic changes are starting to yield political transformations: historically arch-Conservative Worthing County Council has now fallen into the Labour camp. Note also how, in Tiverton and Honiton, a recent parliamentary byelection was won by the Liberal Democrats, the largest conservative majority ever overturned in a by-election.
These are the kinds of developments that give hope. Campaigners can see how carefully targeted pressure might yield a surprise result: a local Portillo moment for these dark times.
Of course, to maximise impact, it would be most effective if there were a whole bunch of such moments, right across the country. Linked together, these would create a veritable firework display.
Which MPs are vulnerable in Sussex?
Keeping our focus on Sussex, we should look closer at those Worthing results: do they leave the veteran Tory MP Tim Loughton vulnerable to a relatively minor swing? A rush and a push and the land might be ours, as a sadly fallen songsmith once nearly said.
There are other exposed Tories in Sussex. Electoral Calculus publishes a list of seats sorted by the size of their majorities. The names of some ‘vulnerables’ pop out: most obviously Lewes’ Maria Caulfield (maj. 2,457), Hastings’ Sally Ann Hart (maj. 4,043) and Eastbourne’s Caroline Ansell (maj. 4,331). The key point is these three constituencies already have an existing progressive majority (see the bar chart).
In Lewes that majority is already 4,745, with a Liberal Democrat lead; in Eastbourne it is 483 with the Liberal Democrats in the lead; in Hastings and Rye it is 83 with Labour in the lead. Furthermore, there are three additional constituencies that could become gains for progressive parties with quite small swings and some co-ordinated action: East Worthing and Shoreham (with some tactical voting for Labour); Crawley (ditto), and; Mid-Sussex (with tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats).
The obvious step is to choose one of these constituencies where progressive opponents might be persuaded to focus combined resources on getting the incumbent out. Whose public positions – on Brexit, Johnson, sewage, cost of living – leaves them the most deserving of being thrown out on their ear?
Activists need to step outside the tribal box and commit to real change. A key driver and rallying point for this change could be the growing progressive consensus on proportional representation.
A high priority must be getting a deal agreed between Labour and the Green Party (so that the Greens’ 6-8% of the vote gets proper representation, while removing needless competition). Labour tribalists want to ignore the rise of Green politics but they are standing in the way of a progressive government. A deal is needed based on strong narratives, charismatic candidates, active grassroots work (including getting the young involved, knocking on doors, building connections) and a national leadership able to formulate vision and credible promises.
Could sewage be the Tories’ undoing?
At the local level there needs to be specific action, a relentless focus on the vulnerable seats and a strategy to maximise the impact of limited resources. This requires smart thinking and hard-nosed calculation, arising from a total commitment to throwing out the grifters and chancers and putting in better people, building a culture which is wider than whatever it is that Maria Caulfield or Natalie Elphicke stand for. This means talking to all persons of goodwill.
Brighton and Hove Compass Group is already meeting regularly and preparing an ambitious programme for the autumn. Along with other groups around the country, it looks like the people there are going to make a serious impact. At the same time, the campaign exposing those Tory MPs who voted against curbing the release of untreated sewage in our seas and rivers could be another rallying point.
There are other vulnerable Tory seats across the ‘blue wall’. If we can start a wave, it might even reach all the way to Uxbridge where it could wash out the incumbent there, our ‘old friend’ the Big Dawg Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Get-Brexit-Done Johnson.
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
