On 29 May, South Africans went to the polls to elect a new National Assembly, as well as the provincial legislature in each of its provinces.
The results mean that after 30 years of unbroken majority rule, support for the African National Congress (ANC) has substantially collapsed. They have gained only 40% of the vote, compared to 57.5% at the last election, held in 2019. This reflects the “economic stagnation, rampant crime, failing public services and epic corruption”, over which Mandela’s successors have presided, to quote The Economist.
The ANC must now form a coalition with one or more opposition parties to stay in power. What would the esteemed former President, the late Nelson Mandela, make of this?
The struggle against Apartheid
Many of us of a certain age, shocked by the brutal suppression of the majority black population of South Africa, became members of the anti-apartheid campaign in the 1970s and 80s.
Subsequently, I was lucky enough to attend the event in Wembley Stadium on 16 April 1990 which Mandela addressed, shortly after his release from 27 years in prison on 11 February that year. We regarded him as an icon, whose commitment to equality and reconciliation would transform his country and had inspired the world.
ANC victory in 1994
In April 1994, the ANC won South Africa’s first elections by universal suffrage with 62% of the vote and, at the age of 76, Mandela became the county’s first President of a multi-ethnic government. He introduced creditable policies of economic development, housing and education initiatives, aimed at achieving social justice for the majority of the country’s population.
However, today, many young South Africans believe that he gave them political freedom, but not economic freedom. (Unemployment amongst the younger generation is estimated at around 60%.) In their view, in order to ensure a peaceful transition of power, he compromised, by failing to push the white minority government for a land and wealth agreement along with nationalisation of mines, banks and monopoly industries, as originally promised in 1990.
Unworthy successors
Mandela did not seek a second Presidential term, handing over to his deputy, Thabo Mbeki in 1999. However, neither Mbeki, nor Jacob Zuma, maintained Mandela’s high standards. With the 2009 elections, the party suffered a drop in support, that was repeated in 2014 and 2019. This period coincided with the Presidency of Zuma, who was eventually banned from parliament by the judiciary.
One party state
Ironically, one aspect of the decline of the ANC as a political party is probably the fact it did not initially split into smaller parties once apartheid was defeated – something which many of its leaders had expected, prior to gaining power. This effectively led to a ‘one party state’, with the ANC the undisputed party of government, prone to putting the interests of the party above those of the country.
‘Closed list’ system
Another reason for the ANC’s failings was the ‘closed list”’ electoral system, a particular form of proportional representation (PR) chosen for both the National and Provincial Assemblies since 1994.
Members of Parliament hold their seats according to their position on the party’s list. This leads to a perceived lack of accountability between MPs and voters, as party leaders, not voters, have ‘hire or fire’ power over MPs.
How to improve democracy?
It may be 2029 before South Africa sees power changing hands, with other parties forming the government, as happens in normal democracies. Over time, in view of the failure of the ANC to tackle poverty, crime and corruption, other parties, including Rise Mzansi, a vehicle for former newspaper editor Songezo Zibi and Build One South Africa, led by former Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane, appear to be establishing a presence on the electoral map in order to build voter recognition for 2029, when the prospect of the first non-ANC government might conceivably become a reality.
The choices for Ramaphosa
As leader of the largest party, and the current ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa (not known for his decisiveness) now has to make a difficult choice of one or more partners with which to form a coalition government. As he cannot serve more than two terms, an ANC succession battle for 2029 awaits.
The party which came second in the election is the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), with 22% of the vote, which would secure a majority for an ANC-led coalition. This party, however, is favoured by minorities, notably the white community, and the ANC would be expected to follow more market-orientated policies, potentially alienating its own left flank.
South Africa’s third biggest party, uMkhonto weSizwe party (MK), drawing on the Zulu vote, is led by Ramaphosa’s bitter rival and predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who has demanded the President’s resignation. Together with the Inkatha Freedom party, the traditional Zulu party, these parties will dominate in KwaZulu-Natal, the country’s second-most populous province.
Fourth in line, with 10% of the vote, is the racially nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose leader, Julius Malena, was expelled from the ANC by Ramaphosa in 2012. This party is composed of mostly younger voters and did well in Gauteng, the most populous province.
The ANC dilemma: a government of national unity?
When Mandela formed his government in April 1994, he chose a “government of national unity”, which he characterised as “people drawn from different racial groups who have a common loyalty, a common love, to their common country”; in other words, his “rainbow nation”.
Ramaphosa’s choice could have between promoting economic growth and stability, by partnering with the DA, or trying to consolidate populist parties who have power at the regional level, within an ANC-led national coalition.
However, it now looks as though he will try to adopt a third model, based on Mandela’s, hoping that extremist groups who refuse to join it will be marginalised. Given the hostility of both MK and EFF, this may be a risky strategy.
One thing is clear, however, as Lord Peter Hain, the veteran anti-apartheid campaigner has said, Nelson Mandela will be turning in his grave at the current state of his beloved country.
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