On 29 April, Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to the Economist magazine, following up a speech he had given previously at the Sorbonne, warning about the existential threats he sees to the peace and prosperity of Europe. Is he right?
Ukraine war
The most obvious danger to a peaceful Europe is, of course, the war in Ukraine. We are now seeing the consequences of the Republicans’ delay to additional funding from the US, as Russia has made some unprecedented gains of territory recently, at least partly, it seems, caused by a shortage of weapons and ammunition on the Ukrainian side.
Some might suspect Macron of trying to undermine NATO, or at least of trying to strengthen the French defence industries. But with the prospect of another Trump Presidency looming, and the House of Representatives’ prolonged reluctance to agree to further funding for Ukraine, the case is being made for him, for a strengthened European defence capability.
Macron’s perspective is not limited to the EU. It has clear implications for the rest of Europe, including for the next UK government, because post-Brexit, the EU lost, in Britain, one of its two foremost military powers.
European Political Community
After much prevarication, a date has now been set, at the last minute, for the UK to host the next meeting of the European Political Community. This group of more than 40 European states, itself conceived by Macron after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, facilitates discussions between EU and non-EU members. It is hosted once every six months by a member of one of these two groups, on an alternating basis. Somewhat surprisingly, Liz Truss attended its inaugural meeting in Prague in October 2022.
There was not exactly a rush of enthusiasm from other members to agree a date for the UK’s ‘turn’, but in the nick of time, the date and venue of 18 July at Blenheim Place was announced by Rishi Sunak.
Implications for the next UK Government
Macron has made no secret of his intention to use this opportunity to discuss the contribution of the French nuclear deterrent to Europe’s security, as well as the potential for closer cooperation with the UK on bilateral defence co-operation.
This latter strategy may have important implications for Labour, should they win the forthcoming UK general election on 4 July, as they are seeking to improve the UK/EU relationship, and security and defence cooperation may be a good place to start.
Whilst the EU Commission’s Secretariat may still feel bruised by the memory of their dealings over Brexit with the likes of Johnson and Frost, other senior European officials are willing to acknowledge in private the importance of re-engaging with the next UK government on these areas.
The Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, speaking of “progressive realism”, has indicated in recent statements aimed at a French audience, that “security”, should include, as well as foreign and defence policy, other areas such as economic and climate security (to which could be added energy security, in my view).
Global economic threats
Amongst the other strategic threats which Macron is trying to address is the economic threat to Europe, not only from China, but also from the US becoming more protectionist. For example, through its Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration is subsidising green investment at home.
Despite the EU having a substantially bigger population than the US (450 million post-Brexit, compared to around 335 million in the US) in the first quarter of 2024, the economy of the EU grew by 3.4%, above its pre-pandemic level, whilst the US had the highest growth among G7 economies at 8.7%. The comparable UK figure was 1.7%.
European elections: the rise of the Right in Europe
It seems probable that another factor driving Mr Macron’s radicalism in these respects is the internal threat within France and also the wider EU, of the rise of the right, with European elections only weeks away on 9 June.
Macron himself is constitutionally barred from serving a third term, with the next Presidential election due in 2027. His centrist victories in 2017 and 2022 had the effect of neutralising the traditional more moderate left and right-wing parties, which were replaced by more extreme opposition parties in France.
The left is led by Eurosceptic Jean-Luc Mélenchon and on the right is RN (National Rally), the party of Marine Le Penn, which in pre-election polls is in the lead, with 32% of the vote. A new pro-European centre-left party, Place Publique, led by MEP Raphael Glucksmann, is attracting voters from both Macron’s Renaissance party and from Mélenchon’s far-left party, so it will be interesting to see the European election results in France from this perspective.
Meanwhile, turning to other EU states, Croatia is the latest to include a far-right party in its governing coalition. It joins Finland, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia, whilst Sweden’s government is dependent upon nationalist support. Geert Wilders’ far right Freedom Party got the largest vote in last November’s Dutch election.
Europe needs the UK and the UK needs Europe
Perhaps the UK will be the only European state to see a change of government from right to left in the coming period. In the European Parliament, we have to hope that the centre will hold its ground against illiberal and nationalist parties in the mould of the former UKIP.
What a pity that the UK’s progressive parties are no longer represented in the European Parliament, where they could have contributed to a more balanced outcome than seems likely in the forthcoming EP elections in June.
As ever, Europe needs the UK, and the UK needs Europe. When will we ever learn?
