On the coldest night of the year, the flow of those turning up to vote was steady. Wrapped up against the winter chill, you could spot the regulars, willing to share their poll numbers with a party worker. And there were others who rushed past, suspicious of any approach. First time voters? It felt like the Brexit referendum all over again.
Back then, I remember the uncertainty on people’s faces, the long queues. And of course the result, which mirrored the national vote to leave.
Hastings, the 14th most deprived borough in Britain, would seem natural Labour territory. Yet, more recently, the Greens have made progress, in 2024 winning control of the local council. But with Reform UK now ahead in national polls, the contest was simply: who was best placed to beat Nigel Farage’s far-right insurgent army?
Both ‘progressive’ parties claimed to be neck and neck with Reform: it was a battle of competing bar charts in the leafletting lead-up to polling day on November 20. But in the end it was the Greens who came in second – 190 votes behind Reform, which captured 32% of the vote. Turnout for a winter by-election was fairly high at 31%.
Is this a pattern for the future?
Labour came a distant fourth. So what went wrong for the party which in 2024 won the parliamentary seat of Hastings & Rye? Even more concerning for the Left generally: will this be a pattern for future elections, with the progressive / centrist vote hopelessly split?
Labour’s claim that it could win the formerly safe Tory East Sussex County Council seat of Ashdown & Conquest (vacant on the death of a sitting councillor) was described by one local journalist as “fanciful and naive”. However, Labour fielded one of its best candidates in recent times in Amanda Pollard, an NHS worker and award-winning whistleblower. But adding to Labour’s difficulties on polling day was uncertainty around the Budget, just six days away.
A party spokesman told Sussex Bylines: “Hastings and Rye Labour thank Amanda for her incredible work over the campaign. Ashdown and Conquest was the Tory’s stronghold in Hastings, but now Reform UK have a foothold on the county council and we need to be honest about what that means. Our children’s services, adult social care, schools and libraries are going to be seen as expendable services by the council.
“We won’t flinch in the face of this and will always offer residents of Hastings and Rye a positive local vision that puts compassion and people first.”
On the other hand, Hastings Greens are justified in saying their candidate, Paula Warne, came a “strong second”. The result could well show “growing support” for the party, although many voters may have rallied to them only because this was the best option to keep Reform out.
Reform cock-a-hoop
Reform described the outcome as “fantastic” — the party now “proud and motivated”. Its candidate, Aidan Christian Fisher, is standard issue for the Right — with “experience in the financial industry” and having formerly served in the Territorial Army. He now takes his place as the first Reform councillor on the Tory-run county council.
Council elections since 2024 point to Reform mostly capitalising on its national poll rankings. It won control of six councils in England following elections in May and also the majority of council seats. Nonetheless, Bylines Times believes Reform’s Welsh setback in Caerphilly shows it is much weaker than it looks.
Disillusionment with both Tories and Labour appears to be the chief motivating factor in Reform’s rise. And in England at least, reports of racism and the party’s chaotic stewardship of Kent appear to be irrelevant in the minds of a significant proportion of voters.
Reform may be poised to make further gains in East Sussex in elections to a new unitary authority or authorities. No date has yet been set for these. And elections for a new Andy Burnham-style Mayor, with new powers covering both Sussexes and Brighton, have just been postponed to 2028.
Will the other parties combine to keep Reform out?
The LibDems already have a sizeable presence in East Sussex, and a rejuvenated Green Party could also make gains. The Greens in particular are untainted by the unpopularity that seems to go hand in hand with governing.
The Tories, on present form and as the incumbents in East Sussex, are likely to take a beating but still remain a dominant force. While Labour’s fate lies in whether or not its progress in areas such as renters’ and worker’s rights, childcare support and Budget fixes will be enough to reverse its national slide in popularity.
All in all, not a good time for progressives. But it’s still a long way off from the 2029 General Election. And despite Keir Starmer’s current dire poll rankings, a stonking majority in Parliament means Labour is not going anywhere soon.
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