Trump’s victory throws up some striking parallels between Britain and the US. When President Biden beat Trump to the presidency in 2020, the world was staggering out of the Covid crisis. The US economy was on its knees. Biden’s administration helped hard-hit US citizens, particularly the poor, get back on their feet.
Fast forward to today, and the American people’s verdict is: that is not enough. Work for millions is still poorly paid, failing to keep pace with rising prices. Above all, Biden was not popular. His federal efforts to boost the economy and create jobs registered in data charts. But the majority of Americans saw a man who was out of touch and weak.
Gordon Brown was another well-meaning man, whose personality, dour and distant, failed to cut through to British voters. The final straw, his lack of empathy – remember his “that bigoted woman” remark? – was a decisive factor in Labour’s defeat. And subsequently 14 years of Conservative grift, grandstanding and economic harm via Brexit.
Starmer’s popularity has sunk
Labour, gifted a huge majority by the British people, is preparing to undo that damage. But progress will inevitably be slow. And there have been stumbles – the most damaging being ending the universal winter fuel allowance. Arguments that the most vulnerable pensioners will be protected, and that pensions for all will rise next year, have failed to cut through.
In new polling, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s personal polling has sunk to record lows. It’s an ominous sign for Labour’s future: once the public has fallen out of love with a politician, it’s very difficult to win that love back. He also faces the twin threat of the Tories’ Kemi Badenoch and Reform’s Nigel Farage, both emboldened now by Trump’s victory and waiting in the wings.
So is Labour doomed? Not necessarily. Starmer’s Labour is a party in a hurry: pledging to stabilise the economy, build homes, give much needed help to renters, fix schools and hospitals, boost green electricity … the list seems endless.
“A hell of a lot to do”
And it has arguably made a good start with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has produced a “big Budget because there is a hell of a lot to do”.
But it is also risky, with no guarantee that investment in healthcare and infrastructure will provide the national renewal it promises.
We’re only four months into a five-year Labour government. There is still a lot it can achieve … and a lot that can go wrong.
The question will not be, in 2029, has Labour ‘fixed the foundations’, but will the public give it credit for doing so? And will it by then have warmed to Sir Keir?
The danger for progressives is – as in the United States – the public ignores what progress has been made and opts instead for politicians who offer easy answers.
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