If the US election result has shown us anything, it’s that, if the electorate feels their basic needs are not being met, if they feel disenfranchised, neglected and impoverished, they will vote for the party that promises to fix that, regardless of any previous political affiliation or ideology.
They want to be listened to and lifted out of poverty, towards a place where their bellies are full, their homes and neighbourhoods are clean and safe, they have job security and their children have a future. And that, I believe, is of the utmost importance for Labour to keep at the forefront of their decision-making over the next five years if they are to prevent a ‘Trump-like’ upset at the next UK election.
Addressing the basics
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs argued that people’s physiological and safety needs – air, food, water, health, safety, shelter – must be met before they are likely to have the time, energy or inclination to care about anything else. The current trajectory of the Labour Party should have us worried about their ability, or desire, to address this.
Impacts on shelter
Within weeks of gaining power, the new government announced a restriction on winter fuel allowances. Figures show that 83% of people over 80 would lose the payment, rising to 90% of those aged 66 to 79. 71% of pensioners with disabilities will have the payment taken away. The impact of these changes means more pensioners will be cold this winter, and an increase in the number of deaths is predicted.
There is a desperate homelessness crisis in Britain, caused by woefully inadequate rates of housebuilding, a dwindling social housing sector and the erosion of financial support for those unable to afford spiralling market rents.
Figures for England in 2023-24 show 358,370 households, including more than 140,000 children, being assessed as homeless, or in danger of being homeless, up 10.4% from the previous year. Over 3,000 people are sleeping rough on any given night (26% increase) and 279,400 are living in temporary accommodation (14% increase) – most of whom are families who have been there for more than two years. There are also 20,000 people in hostels or supported accommodation.
Impacts on water
The dire state of our waterways, seas, and water infrastructure is well documented, with water companies heavily in debt, yet continuing to pay their executives huge salaries and bonuses, and shareholders receiving payouts that should instead be reinvested to improve the infrastructure.
England and Wales are the only countries in the world to have fully privatised their water utility, but despite significant pressure to take that utility back into public ownership, the government is rejecting these calls, preferring instead to strengthen the regulators’ currently feeble powers, while allowing water bills to double over the next few years to pay for the water companies’ failures.
Impacts on health
Wes Streeting, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, has described the NHS as “broken” and going through the biggest crisis in its history. Waiting times for GPs and NHS services are at an all-time high, and unacceptable numbers of people are dying waiting for ambulances, critical care and operations. The social care crisis is the worst it has ever been and the cost of care homes has spiralled.
Impacts on safety
Police in England and Wales are facing a crisis of confidence. In the wake of cases including the Charing Cross scandal, the murder of Sarah Everard at the hands of off-duty Metropolitan Police constable Wayne Couzens, and former police officer and serial rapist David Carrick, public trust in police has completely broken down.
There is a failure to solve crimes. Between 2015 and 2023 in England and Wales, the percentage of crime resulting in the offender being caught by the police and taken to court fell from 16% to 5.7%. For rape, it is around 2% of reported rape cases that result in the Crown Prosecution Service charging a suspect and taking them to court.
Is immigration to blame? Some believe this is key
Immigration into the UK is a divisive issue. Does immigration produce an overall cost or benefit to the public purse? Those against immigration complain that immigrants take houses, jobs and benefits that would otherwise be allocated to UK natives.
Yet research published by the UCL Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) showed that immigrants to the UK arriving between 2000 and 2011 were 45% less likely to be on benefits or tax credits than UK natives, and 3% less likely to live in social housing. European Economic Area (EEA) immigrants contributed 34% more in taxes than they received as benefits, while UK natives’ tax payments over the same period were 11% lower than the hand-outs they received.
Immigration is a concern for many, based on a misunderstanding about asylum seekers. People think asylum makes up more than five times as much of UK immigration as is actually the case. On average, the public thinks that people seeking asylum represent more than a third of total immigration (37%) when it actually accounts for only around 7%.
Four in ten Reform voters (39%) and three in ten Conservatives (31%) think more than half of UK migration is for asylum.
The public also underestimates migration for work and study, which makes up most migration to the UK. People think a quarter of immigration (26%) is for work when the figure is around 40%, and estimate that 19% is for study (actually 38%). The result is an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have – though concern about Channel crossings is also driven by a visible lack of control and the subsequent delays in processing the arrivals.
Support for reducing immigration has risen by over 10 points in the last two years, to 55% (from 42% in February 2022). Around 4 in 10 people (38%) are opposed to reducing numbers (23% would keep at current levels, 15% increase).
The threat to Labour in 2029
Labour has to address the key threat Farage and his Reform voters may pose to their chances of a second term. The Reform voting base consists of disenchanted, disenfranchised voters who feel they are not listened to and are sick of politicians not taking their concerns seriously or doing anything to improve their lives. There are too many sources of deliberate misinformation, making it harder to challenge these views.
It’s all very well to dismiss every objection with facts, figures and ridicule, but a belittling and patronising approach will fail. I believe the way to get people on board over the next five years is to make them feel that their fundamental needs are being listened to and addressed and that there is a bright future for the UK which, importantly, centres around them and their families.
Labour needs to redefine and re-focus on domestic economic delivery and shut out other ‘noise’. If they don’t deliver actual improved health and economic security, and reduce poverty, then voters will be more inclined to believe the fanciful solutions of the right-wing, with Nigel Farage as UK Prime Minister in 2029 a real possibility.
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