Given the enormous significance of the US election result, not only for America itself but for us in the UK and the rest of the world, we will be devoting a number of articles in the coming week to the implications of Trump’s victory.
We asked our regular writers to write a brief piece sharing their reactions to the election outcome, and we have compiled their responses into three articles, covering, broadly, the implications for the UK; for the politics of climate change and the environment; and for Europe and Ukraine.
This is the first, and we will be publishing the following pieces tomorrow (Monday) and Tuesday.
The US election and the glass cliff – Pat Drake
The glass cliff is a slippery slope and is the special preserve of successful women.
First coined in 2005 by academics Michelle Ryan and Alexander Haslam, the glass cliff provides a precipitous exit route. Women who smash the glass ceiling, Ryan and Haslam showed, are often appointed when previous organisational performance is poor, so the risk of failure is greater. Kamala Harris provides a spectacular example. Late appointment, short campaign, serious concerns and lengthy equivocation about President Biden’s suitability made the risks jeopardising her success extremely high, and that’s before even beginning to consider her characteristics as an effective Trump opponent.
Trump’s election will leave the UK feeling very lonely – Mo Kanjilal
The result in the US election shows a nation divided, but perhaps not as closely divided as we thought. We can try to extract the reasons for this result. It points to people who feel disenfranchised voting for someone who spoke to them in simple terms of Making America Great Again. We’re familiar with three-word slogans winning elections here. There’s the question of whether the USA will ever elect a woman as President? It was a leap. Kamala Harris came into the campaign late, she was fighting timing, sexism, racism, and her role in the Biden administration. When you look at the data, many people who voted Democrat last time did not turn out to vote this time. Perhaps her stance on Gaza was a factor?
Despite celebrity endorsements, she did not cut through with working-class voters, or with many white women – she got 54% of them voting for her over 57% who voted for Biden. Then there’s her messaging and policies. She aligned herself with Biden and attacked Trump. Did she communicate her own ideas and vision enough? This is not just her failure though. The Democrats need to look at their party’s direction, vision and messaging to engage voters if they want to win again.
What are the implications for us here in the UK? Well, the morning of 6 November felt very like the morning of 24 June 2016 here after the Brexit vote. Trump is saying he is going to make decisions on taxing imported goods, cutting climate regulations, ending the Ukraine war, continuing to fund Israel. He will almost certainly distance the US from the European Union. So will the Labour government now need to focus on closer links with the EU? It feels like the ‘special relationship’ with the USA will dwindle, and our relationship with the EU, slowly dissipating because of Brexit, will leave us feeling very lonely.
That’s the challenge for our government now.
Insularity doesn’t work – nations need collaboration – Tom Serpell
The election of a populist, right-wing nationalist in the USA can only give succour and encouragement to right-wing parties elsewhere. Just how much that encouragement will bring in active or practical terms remains to be seen, when it is centred on disengagement from the wider world. Trump’s package of closing the borders, improving the nation’s economy without coughing up for overseas wars, international development or foreign refugees has resonated at home and will no doubt be emulated in other countries facing similar issues.
Insularity has no track record of economic success just as fortresses do not win wars. Franco’s autarky policy in Spain led to economic failure and a humiliating climb-down. We need look no further today than North Korea to see another failing example. Strength lies in how well one is connected, not how unconnected one can be. Nations need collaboration with other countries to complement their internal resources.
What good has Brexit done this country? What good will it do the US pharmaceutical trade to decry vaccinations? What good will it do USA for Putin to annex Ukraine?
